Last fall the press has made a mighty stir about the move towards 7 billion people alive on the planet.
Trouble is, the story may be premature.
Starting last year world population was projected to exceed the 7 billion mark in the October-November, 2011 time frame. The press must have set their calendars because recent reporting tracked almost perfectly with the earlier UN-based projections. But the 2010 number was based on forecasts that seem to have slowed. In some way this may be related to the effects of the global economic malaise, reduced economic productivity and demand for energy, though the exact cause-effect of those trends in relation to population is illusive. For whatever reason, the rate of growth seems to have slowed.
Updated projections of the 7 billion mark now put the milestone a year from now. For example, see the US Census Bureau population clock, or another often-cited tracker, the World Population Clock. These clocks show slightly different numbers but are still pretty closely aligned. Only one major source, 'WorldOMeters, Real Time World Statistics', has counted beyond the 7 billion number supposedly achieved on October 31st of this year. This third clock bases its numbers on a combination of UN and US Census data, but that's hard to rationalize since the Census Bureau clock shows such different numbers.
But it doesn't really matter when we pass the 7 billion mark, whether this year or next. The milestone is a foregone conclusion. The good news is, it's a matter of much public discussion. There may be related good news from learning that many developed nations have slowed population growth to near zero or even moved into negative territory where deaths and out-migrations now exceed rates of birth. Despite that trend, even in the U.S., certain regions of the world continue to be on an accelerated rate of growth, notably India and Africa, ensuring that overal growth rates will continue to climb with the density of population still heavily concentrated in the poorer regions of eastern Europe as well as central Africa and the Asian continent.
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| How population is distributed around the world |
Why is consumption accelerating even as the rate of population growth might be slowing? Because the combination of expanded low-cost communications media leads to heightened lifestyle expectations, especially in developing economies. Combined with ever-increasing industrial capacity fueled by coal and oil, natural resources can now be converted, grown, harvested, transported and consumed with ever-increasing speed. This effects everyone, everywhere, regardless of where you live on the planet; we participate in a global economy, an ecosystem of trade, where the well being of every nation and every individual is linked to the well being and productivity of every other part of the planet. Taken as a whole, we are as a species living way beyond our means.
Groups like Global Footprint Network now make a ritual out of reminding us that every year we spend down our natural capital accounts at a rate faster than then planet can replenish them. Overshoot day occurs earlier every year. Overshoot means we are exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet. We are consuming resources more rapidly than they can be regrown, year after year. We are spending our limited natural capital savings more quickly than we those savings can be restored. The planet, the economy, quality of life, human freedoms -- all are diminished as consumptive demand for natural resources continues to exceed nature's regenerative capacity. For more about overshoot and what it means, click the link below.
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| Watch the video: What is Ecological Overshoot? |
Population growth and associated demand for resources are the causes of accelerating global environmental change. Overshoot means that we have exceeded the planet's ability to support our annual demand for renewable natural resources. Exceeding the planet's carrying capacity, we diminish our quality of life, our standard of living, and the ability of future generations to meet their needs in world of declining ecological, economic and political stability.
